U.S. Recession Probabilities Series Added to FRED

This recession probabilities series from University of California, Riverside economist Marcelle Chauvet and University of Oregon economist Jeremy Piger is a monthly measure of the probability of recession in the United States obtained from a dynamic-factor Markov-switching model applied to 4 monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales.

Posted in FRED Announcements, Research Announcements

Recently Viewed Series


Subscribe to our newsletter for updates on published research, data news, and latest econ information.
Name:   Email:  
Twitter logo Google Plus logo Facebook logo YouTube logo LinkedIn logo