FRED has added two data series about the monthly median (50th percentile) probability of recession for the United States and the Euro Area reported by researchers Francesco Furno and Domenico Giannone.
Values range from 0 to 100, where values closer to 100 indicate higher probability of recession. United States data are available starting January 1980 and Euro Area data are available starting January 1985.
For details about the methodology, read the authors’ academic work.