Focus on Recession Probabilities

This assignment provides instructions on building the graph below and includes writing prompts for out-of-class assignments.

From the FRED Blog

The post “Dating a recession: FRED marks the spot” discusses the process followed by the FRED team to mark recessions in FRED graphs.

Storytelling with Data and FRED Interactive Modules

The COVID-19 recession: Learn how to use FRED® to visualize the COVID-19 recession. The FRED Interactive modules can be embedded in your learning management system.

Quiz Yourself on Recessions

Q1. Between 1947 Q2 and 2022 Q2, which was the longest recession?

Q2. Between 1947 Q2 and 2022 Q2, which was the shortest recession?

Q1. Between 1947 Q2 and 2022 Q2, which was the deepest recession?  

Q2. Between 1947 Q2 and 2022 Q2, which was the shallowest recession?

The graph above shows the real-time Sham Rule Recession Indicator. It signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to its low during the previous 12 months.

Q1. Consider the value of the indicator in July 2022. Does it signal the start of a recession?

You can share these graphs with your students using this dashboard. To customize this dashboard, just click the “Save to My Account” button at the top of the dashboard.