This recession probabilities series from University of California, Riverside economist Marcelle Chauvet and University of Oregon economist Jeremy Piger is a monthly measure of the probability of recession in the United States obtained from a dynamic-factor Markov-switching model applied to 4 monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales.
Recent Posts
- FRED Adds New Employer-to-Employer Transition Probability Data
- FRED Offers Enhanced Graphing
- Teaching About Nonfarm Payrolls | Bring FRED into the Classroom | November 2024
- Teaching the Unemployment Rate | Bring FRED into the Classroom | October 2024
- Teaching Consumer Price Index | Bring FRED into the Classroom | September 2024