This recession probabilities series from University of California, Riverside economist Marcelle Chauvet and University of Oregon economist Jeremy Piger is a monthly measure of the probability of recession in the United States obtained from a dynamic-factor Markov-switching model applied to 4 monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales.
Recent Posts
- FRED Adds “Redlining” Data from Aaronson, Hartley, and Mazumder
- FRED Adds Industry Productivity Dataset from Bureau of Labor Statistics
- FREDcast Will Be Retired in August 2021
- FRED Adds U.S. Mortgage High Yield Indexes from Andrew Davidson and Co.
- Chicago Fed’s Midwest Economy Index To Be Discontinued in June 2021
