This recession probabilities series from University of California, Riverside economist Marcelle Chauvet and University of Oregon economist Jeremy Piger is a monthly measure of the probability of recession in the United States obtained from a dynamic-factor Markov-switching model applied to 4 monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales.
Recent Posts
- Teaching About Diversity in Data | Bring FRED into the Classroom | February 2023
- Teaching About Adjusting for Inflation | Bring FRED into the Classroom | January 2023
- FRED Expands Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey
- Changes to Freddie Mac Dataset in FRED
- Teaching About Income and Wealth Inequality | Bring FRED into the Classroom | November 2022