This recession probabilities series from University of California, Riverside economist Marcelle Chauvet and University of Oregon economist Jeremy Piger is a monthly measure of the probability of recession in the United States obtained from a dynamic-factor Markov-switching model applied to 4 monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales.
- Consolidation of the Board of Governors H.3 and H.6 Statistical Releases
- Teaching Environmental Economics | Bring FRED into the Classroom | October 2020
- Changes to Atlanta Fed’s Survey of Business Uncertainty
- Teaching the Economics of Wealth| Bring FRED into the Classroom | September 2020
- FRED Will Discontinue Weekly and Monthly Treasury Inflation-Indexed Securities