Dear FREDcast players,
Thank you for being a part of our FREDcast community. We’ve enjoyed all the great economic forecasting over the past 5 years.
After carefully assessing regular usage and the resources we must commit to supporting this product, we have decided to discontinue FREDcast.
The June forecasting period (from May 21, 2021, until June 20, 2021) will be the last one to enter your forecasts. The scoring of forecasted values will occur on July 2, 2021, for unemployment rate and payroll employment; on July 13, 2021, for CPI inflation; and on July 29, 2021, for the real GDP growth rate.
The FREDcast website will be unavailable after August 1, 2021.
We know a change like this can be disruptive, especially for those who have used FREDcast as a teaching tool. We’d like to suggest some alternatives to engage your students with current events and FRED data.
As always, thank you for your continued trust in the economic resources from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
These 10 index series from Andrew Davidson & Company (AD&Co) track the total return of the bonds issued within the CRT programs of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The U.S. Mortgage High Yield Indexes is an informational, investment-oriented monthly index of the return components: price, coupon, paydown, and credit loss. Accompanied by standard risk metrics from their models, the index is useful for comparisons with individual CRT bonds or relative value to other credit markets.
The crOAS (credit-and-option-adjusted spread) series are an extension of the traditional OAS measure. On a set of 20 standardized, probabilistically weighted, market-and-model stress scenarios, AD&Co computes a discount rate that equates expected present value of a tranche’s cash flows to the observed market price; the cash flows are loss-adjusted using AD&Co’s LoanDynamics Model (LDM).
Disclaimer: The AD&Co U.S. Mortgage High-Yield Index serves as an informational index and is not for commercial-use purposes. The Index’s accuracy, completeness, timeliness, and suitability for any purpose are not guaranteed. The Index does not constitute (1) investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice or (2) any recommendation or solicitation to purchase, hold, sell, or otherwise deal in any investment. This Index has been prepared for general informational purposes, without consideration of the circumstances or objectives of any particular investor. Any reliance on the Index is at the reader’s sole risk. All investment is subject to numerous risks, known and unknown. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. For investment advice, seek a qualified investment professional. Not for redistribution without permission. Note: An affiliate of Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc. engages in trading activities in investments that may be the same or similar to those featured in the Index.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago has announced they will discontinue the Midwest Economy Index (MEI) after its June 2021 release, given the discontinuation of several underlying data series and the impact the COVID-19 pandemic has had on the remaining series since March 2020.
More information about the discontinuation of the MEI is available on the Chicago Fed’s MEI home page.
FRED has added the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI), a research project from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a large panel of monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth. Monthly GDP growth is indexed to the quarterly estimates from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and consists of three components: cycle, trend, and irregular components.
Explore the monthly and quarterly BBK indexes in FRED here.
This index from the Dallas Fed, developed by Lutz Kilian, measures global real economic activity in industrial commodity markets. This business-cycle index is expressed in percent deviations from trend. It is derived from a panel of dollar-denominated global bulk dry cargo shipping rates and may be viewed as a proxy for the volume of shipping in global industrial commodity markets.
For further discussion of the advantages of this index compared with measures of global real GDP or global industrial production, see Kilian and Zhou (2018).
FRED has added two releases from the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) with over 4,000 series on patents granted in the U.S.
The first release, U.S. Granted Utility Patents by Counties and CBSAs, has U.S. granted utility patents originating in U.S. counties and U.S. core-based statistical areas from 2000 to 2015.
The second release, U.S. Granted Patents by States, Territories, and Countries, has U.S. granted patents originating in U.S. states/territories and foreign countries from 1992 to 2019. Patents granted are also broken down by patent type: utility, plant, design, and reissue patents.
These 53 series represent the changes that the FDIC implemented after redefining the “national rate” as follows: the average of rates paid by all insured depository institutions and credit unions for which data are available, with rates weighted by each institution’s share of domestic deposits.
On December 15, 2020, the FDIC Board of Directors approved a final rule making certain revisions to the interest rate restrictions applicable to less-than-well-capitalized institutions (as defined in Section 38 of the Federal Deposit Insurance Act), which are effective on April 1, 2021. The interest rate restrictions generally limit a less-than-well-capitalized institution from soliciting deposits by offering rates that significantly exceed rates in its prevailing market.
Users are encouraged to read the previously mentioned documentation, as well as view the release tables.
We’re pleased to announce that FRED is celebrating 30 years as a trusted leader in providing economic data! And archival FRED (ALFRED) is celebrating 15 years of storing real-time vintages of FRED data!
The invitation list for this celebration includes you, of course, and 788,000 of our closest friends. (That is, our data series.) Additional “guests” will trickle in over time.
We’re marking this milestone with an update to the FRED website header, which includes FRED-specific content such as Release Calendar, FRED Blog, and About FRED. It also gives credit to our parent, the St. Louis Fed’s Research Division, and sibling websites, all under the heading Economic Research Resources.
Notice the new trending search terms on the FRED homepage? This list of the most-looked-for data in FRED is updated twice per day to provide you with the most relevant and timely data info.
We’re happy we can continue to enhance these data services and provide valuable resources for your data needs. Help us celebrate by testing out these new features and let us know if you have any birthday data wishes.