In this newsletter, we use a graph to show home price indexes, map building permits for new single-family homes across states and over time, share some tips for playing FREDcast, and quiz you on housing markets.

Focus on Home Price Indexes

This assignment provides instructions on building the graph below and includes writing prompts for out-of-class assignments.

Using GeoFRED® to Compare Growth Rates of Building Permits

This assignment provides instructions on creating the maps of growth rates of building permits for new single-family homes below and suggests prompts for in-class discussion. See how you do on our sample discussion questions below.

Growth Rate of Building Permits for New Single-family Homes by State

Click on the map above to view an interactive version

Question: Name one State where building permits for new single-family homes increased by double digits between 2018 and 2019 .

Again, click on the map above to view an interactive version

Question: Compare this map with the map above. How are they different? Briefly describe the impact of the economic recession of 2007-2009 on the growth rate of building permits for new single-family homes between 2007 and 2008 .

Learning about Housing Markets to Forecast Changes in Gross Domestic Product

Changes in Gross Domestic Product depend on many factors. In the fourth quarter of 2019, residential private investment, or homebuilding, increased. Read on for more details and a list of resources to become a better FREDcast forecaster.

BLS Headline:

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, “Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2019.”

Release Highlight:

“The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter reflected positive contributions from residential fixed investment.”

https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-fourth-quarter-and-year-2019-advance-estimate

Resources to become a better FREDcaster

• FRED® Blog: “Is the housing price-rent ratio a leading indicator?“
• Economic Synopses: “Construction Permits and Future Housing Supply: Implications for 2020“
• Economic Synopses: “Are U.S. Housing Markets Hot, Hot, Hot?“

Quiz Yourself on Different Aspects of Housing Markets

Q1. In the fourth quarter of 2019, which racial or ethnic group had the highest rate of home ownership in the U.S.?

Q2. In the fourth quarter of 2019, which racial or ethnic group had the lowest rate of home ownership in the U.S.?

Q1. Compare the shares of real estate held by different wealth percentiles. As of the last available observation, which wealth percentile holds the largest share of real estate?

Q2. Compare the shares of real estate held by different wealth percentiles. As of the last available observation, which wealth percentile holds the smallest share of real estate?

Q1. Compare the 30-year and the 15-year fixed rate mortgage average in the U.S. Which one is higher?

Q2. Between the fourth quarter of 2007 and the fourth quarter of 2019, when were the 30-year and the 15-year fixed rate mortgage averages in the U.S. almost the same?

Now that you’ve aced this quiz, give it to your students using this dashboard. To customize this dashboard, just click the “Save to My Account” button at the top of the dashboard.

In this newsletter, we use a graph to show the ratio of unemployed persons to job openings, map the employment-to-population ratio across countries and over time, share some tips for playing FREDcast, and quiz you on labor markets.

Focus on the Ratio of Unemployed Persons to Job Openings

This assignment provides instructions on building the graph below and includes writing prompts for out-of-class assignments.

Using GeoFRED® to Compare Employment-to-Population Ratios

This assignment provides instructions on creating the employment-to-population ratio maps below and suggests prompts for in-class discussion. See how you do on our sample discussion questions below.

Employment-to-Population Ratios by Nation

Click on the map above to view an interactive version

Question: Name five countries in Western Europe with employment-to-population ratios below 50% in 1997.

Again, click on the map above to view an interactive version

Question: Compare this map with the map above. Name two Western European countries whose employment-to-population ratios have risen above 50% between 1997 and 2017. Explain how a rising employment-to-population ratio would impact the average standard of living in those countries.

Learning about Labor Markets to Forecast Changes in Payroll Employment

Changes in payroll employment depend on many factors. In December 2018, some industries had much larger changes in payroll employment than others. Read on for more details and a list of resources to become a better FREDcast forecaster.

BLS Headline:

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 312,000 in December of 2018.”

Release Highlight:

“Job gains occurred in health care, food services and drinking places, construction, manufacturing, and retail trade […] Employment in other major industries, including mining, wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, information, financial activities, and government, showed little change over the month.”
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Resources to become a better FREDcaster

• FRED® Blog: “Which workers quit more?“
• Economic Synopses: “Job Separation Rate Shows Economic Shifts”
• Economic Synopses: “The Mechanics Behind Manufacturing Job Losses“
• Page One Economics®: “Will Your Smartphone Get You a Job?“

Quiz Yourself on Different Aspects of Labor Markets

Q1. Imagine you are currently looking for a job. To which Census region should you move?

Q2. Between 2009 and 2019, which two Census regions have had similar numbers of job openings?

Q1. Compare the percentages of job openings across industries in October 2019 by hovering over the graph. Which industry has the highest percentage of job openings?

Q2. Compare the percentages of job openings across industries in October 2019 by hovering over the graph. Which industry has the lowest percentage of job openings?

Q1. Compare the quitting rates between private industry and government. In which sector do workers quit more frequently?

Q2. Consider the quitting rates over time. When are workers less likely to quit their jobs: during recessions or during expansions?

Q3. Consider the quitting rates over time. When are workers more likely to quit their jobs: during expansions or during recessions?

Now that you’ve aced this quiz, give it to your students using this dashboard. To customize this dashboard, just click the “Save to My Account” button at the top of the dashboard.

In this newsletter, we use a graph to visualize the relationship between the monetary base and the consumer price index, map the population and commercial banks in the U.S. federal reserve districts, share some tips for playing FREDcast, and quiz you on the tools of monetary policy.

Focus on Budget Deficits and Surpluses

This assignment provides instructions on building the graph below and includes writing prompts for out-of-class assignments.

Using GeoFRED to Compare Government Budget Balances

This assignment provides instructions on creating the government lending/borrowing map below and suggests prompts for in-class discussion. See how you do on our sample discussion questions below.

Net government lending/borrowing by Nation

Click on the map above to view an interactive version

Question: Name two countries that reported a government budget surplus (as a fraction of GDP) in 2017.

Learning about GDP components to forecast Real GDP

The components of GDP determine its value. In the third quarter of 2018, an increase in government spending resulted in an increase in the growth rate of GDP. Read on for more details and a list of resources to become a better FREDcast forecaster.

BEA Headline:

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, “Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the third quarter of 2018.”

Release Highlight:

“The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected positive contributions from … state and local government spending, federal government spending …”
https://www.bea.gov/news/2018/gross-domestic-product-3rd-quarter-2018-advance-estimate

Resources to become a better FREDcaster

• FRED® Blog: “War: Spending spikes and new steady states: Historical data on how conflict has changed U.S. government expenditures“
• Economic Synopses: “U.S. Fiscal Policy: Reality and Outlook”
• Economic Synopses: “What Are the Fiscal Costs of a (Great) Recession?“
• Page One Economics®: “Individual Income Tax: The Basics and New Changes“

Quiz Yourself on the Different Tools of Fiscal Policy

Q1. As of the last available observation, which is the source of the largest volume of tax revenue?

Q2. When were tax receipts on corporate income the lowest among the four sources of tax revenue plotted?

Q.3 What percentage of total tax receipts do taxes from the rest of the world represent?

Q1. As of the last available observation, which is the largest category of government spending?

Q2. When was government consumption the highest among the three categories of government spending plotted?

Q3. In which decade were interest payments at their highest, relative to the two other categories of government spending plotted?

Q1. As of the last available observation, who holds the largest share of U.S. federal debt?

Q2. When did the share of U.S. federal debt held by foreign private investors peak?

Q3. What has been the largest share of federal debt held by Federal Reserve Banks? When was that value recorded?

Now that you’ve aced this quiz, give it to your students using this dashboard. To customize this dashboard, just click the “Save to My Account” button at the top of the dashboard.